Denmark – DMI Sea-Level Forecast

DMI Sea-Level Forecast allows you to see the current sea-level forecasts from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), and the effect of the forecasted sea-levels on land.

What is the 'DMI sea level' forecast

DMI sea level displays the areas at risk of flooding from high sea level in the coming five days. It is based on the most recent five-day sea level forecast released by DMI, which is updated four times per day on DMI's website. The update is available in SCALGO Live as soon as a new forecast is released.

The sea level is computed by the sea level model of DMI, which runs four times per day to compute the sea level every hour for the next five days (120 hours). The sea level model is fully automatic, and therefore, it can deviate from the sea level alerts released by DMI. The latter is produced by meteorologists who combine the fully automatic sea level model with critical knowledge about current weather and ocean conditions. The sea level model is also available on DMI's website.

To show the effect of the forecasted sea-levels on the terrain, we use a method in broad strokes resembles the regular Sea-Level Rise analysis. This implies that there is no notion of time in the simulation.

How to use the 'DMI sea level' forecast

Go to the library and select DMI sea level. The layer is located in the group named forecasts (see the illustration below).

In the ocean, the forecast is shown with the palette below (in cm).

Slider: Control the event time

By dragging the slider, you choose the point in time for which the forecast is shown.

If you drag the slider all the way to the right, a maximum forecast is shown, which combines the five-day forecast into a single display of the maximum water level over five days. Note that the maximum water level occurs at different times in different parts of the ocean.

Profile tool: Investigate the elevation of water in the sea and on land

As with other SCALGO Live analysis layers, you can use the Profile tool to view the flood risk along a line.

In the same manner, the profile tool can be used to view the DMI forecast along a line in the ocean.

Sensitivity analysis

When using the +10% and -10% checkboxes, the areas that are within +/-10% of the forecast are highlighted.

When -10% is enabled, a cell on the map is colored red if it is flooded by the forecast, but would not be flooded if the forecast values were 10% lower.

When +10% is enabled, a cell on the map is colored orange if it is not flooded by the forecast, but would be flooded if the forecast values were 10% higher.

Workspaces

When you create a Sea-Level Rise workspace in SCALGO Live, the forecast-based analysis is included as part of the workspace computation. In this manner, it is possible to plan mitigations to prevent sea level flooding.

When a new forecast is released by DMI, you need to click run analysis in the workspace to obtain a flood analysis based on the new forecast.

Cases: Historical forecasts

To get a taste of what the forecast-based analysis looks like in event of a storm surge alert, you can enable the historical forecasts in SCALGO Live.

We recommend that you remove the historical forecasts from the dock after using them, to avoid any confusion when the tool is used in an actual storm surge situation.